Characteristics and prospect of geothermal industry in China under the "dual carbon” target

Geothermal energy utilization in China had been promoted actively during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016–2020), with resultant achievements showing unique Chinese characteristics. Buildings (measured by areas) heated/cooled by intermediate to deep geothermal energy increased more rapidly than those by shallow geothermal energy. Geothermal power generation was restricted by the distribution of the resource and the sufficiency of local power supply. With the proposition of "dual carbon goal” by the central government of China and the coming era of great development of renewable energy, geothermal energy will be provided more development opportunities in room heating/cooling and power generation in the country ever than before. However, tackling technology bottlenecks and introduction of appropriate policy support are still urgently needed for nurturing a healthy environment for geothermal industry. Analysis suggests that a near-to medium-term development of geothermal energy shall be focused on a comprehensive and efficient utilization both through heating/cooling and power generation. Room heating/cooling by intermediate-to-deep and shallow geothermal energy shall be promoted nationwide according to local resource endowment and economic conditions. Geothermal power generation in Yunnan and Tibet shall be pushed forward in an orderly way. For medium- and long-term development, focus shall be put on power generation by using low to medium temperature geothermal energy and hot dry rocks. The "hot spring +" model shall be adapted in steps on a regular basis. To achieve these, measures including attaching importance to tackling key technologies, promoting standards for geothermal energy development and utilization, strengthening geothermal energy exploration and evaluation, and seeking for necessary policy support shall be taken.

Adaptive Evolution of the Spike Protein in Coronaviruses.

Coronaviruses are single-stranded, positive-sense RNA viruses that can infect many mammal and avian species. The Spike (S) protein of coronaviruses binds to a receptor on the host cell surface to promote viral entry. The interactions between the S proteins of coronaviruses and receptors of host cells are extraordinarily complex, with coronaviruses from different genera being able to recognize the same receptor and coronaviruses from the same genus able to bind distinct receptors. As the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has developed, many changes in the S protein have been under positive selection by altering the receptor-binding affinity, reducing antibody neutralization activities, or affecting T-cell responses. It is intriguing to determine whether the selection pressure on the S gene differs between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and other coronaviruses due to the host shift from nonhuman animals to humans. Here, we show that the S gene, particularly the S1 region, has experienced positive selection in both SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses. Although the S1 N-terminal domain exhibits signals of positive selection in the pairwise comparisons in all four coronavirus genera, positive selection is primarily detected in the S1 C-terminal domain (the receptor-binding domain) in the ongoing evolution of SARS-CoV-2, possibly owing to the change in host settings and the widespread natural infection and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in humans.

The twin-beginnings of COVID-19 in Asia and Europe-one prevails quickly.

In the spread of SARS-CoV-2, there have been multiple waves of replacement between strains, each of which having a distinct set of mutations. The first wave is a group of four mutations (C241T, C3037T, C14408T and A23403G [this being the amino acid change D614G]; all designated 0 to 1 below). This DG (D614G) group, fixed at the start of the pandemic, is the foundation of all subsequent waves of strains. Curiously, the DG group is absent in early Asian samples but present (and likely common) in Europe from the beginning. European data show that the high fitness of DG1111 requires the synergistic effect of all four mutations. However, the European strains would have had no time to evolve the four DG mutations (0 to 1), had they come directly from the early Asian DG0000 strain. Very likely, the European DG1111 strain had acquired the highly adaptive DG mutations in pre-pandemic Europe and had been spreading in parallel with the Asian strains. Two recent reports further support this twin-beginning interpretation. There was a period of two-way spread between Asia and Europe but, by May 2020, the European strains had supplanted the Asian strains globally. This large-scale replacement of one set of mutations for another has since been replayed many times as COVID-19 progresses.

The Runaway Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Leading to the Highly Evolved Delta Strain.

In new epidemics after the host shift, the pathogens may experience accelerated evolution driven by novel selective pressures. When the accelerated evolution enters a positive feedback loop with the expanding epidemics, the pathogen's runaway evolution may be triggered. To test this possibility in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we analyze the extensive databases and identify five major waves of strains, one replacing the previous one in 2020-2021. The mutations differ entirely between waves and the number of mutations continues to increase, from 3-4 to 21-31. The latest wave in the fall of 2021 is the Delta strain which accrues 31 new mutations to become highly prevalent. Interestingly, these new mutations in Delta strain emerge in multiple stages with each stage driven by 6-12 coding mutations that form a fitness group. In short, the evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from the oldest to the youngest wave, and from the earlier to the later stages of the Delta wave, is a process of acceleration with more and more mutations. The global increase in the viral population size (M(t), at time t) and the mutation accumulation (R(t)) may have indeed triggered the runaway evolution in late 2020, leading to the highly evolved Alpha and then Delta strain. To suppress the pandemic, it is crucial to break the positive feedback loop between M(t) and R(t), neither of which has yet to be effectively dampened by late 2021. New waves after Delta, hence, should not be surprising.

The high diversity of SARS-CoV-2-related coronaviruses in pangolins alerts potential ecological risks.

Understanding the zoonotic origin and evolution history of SARS-CoV-2 will provide critical insights for alerting and preventing future outbreaks. A significant gap remains for the possible role of pangolins as a reservoir of SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses (SC2r-CoVs). Here, we screened SC2r-CoVs in 172 samples from 163 pangolin individuals of four species, and detected positive signals in muscles of four Manis javanica and, for the first time, one M. pentadactyla. Phylogeographic analysis of pangolin mitochondrial DNA traced their origins from Southeast Asia. Using in-solution hybridization capture sequencing, we assembled a partial pangolin SC2r-CoV (pangolin-CoV) genome sequence of 22 895 bp (MP20) from the M. pentadactyla sample. Phylogenetic analyses revealed MP20 was very closely related to pangolin-CoVs that were identified in M. javanica seized by Guangxi Customs. A genetic contribution of bat coronavirus to pangolin-CoVs via recombination was indicated. Our analysis revealed that the genetic diversity of pangolin-CoVs is substantially higher than previously anticipated. Given the potential infectivity of pangolin-CoVs, the high genetic diversity of pangolin-CoVs alerts the ecological risk of zoonotic evolution and transmission of pathogenic SC2r-CoVs.

Evolutionary analysis and lineage designation of SARS-CoV-2 genomes.

The pandemic due to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the etiological agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has caused immense global disruption. With the rapid accumulation of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences, however, thousands of genomic variants of SARS-CoV-2 are now publicly available. To improve the tracing of the viral genomes' evolution during the development of the pandemic, we analyzed single nucleotide variants (SNVs) in 121,618 high-quality SARS-CoV-2 genomes. We divided these viral genomes into two major lineages (L and S) based on variants at sites 8782 and 28144, and further divided the L lineage into two major sublineages (L1 and L2) using SNVs at sites 3037, 14408, and 23403. Subsequently, we categorized them into 130 sublineages (37 in S, 35 in L1, and 58 in L2) based on marker SNVs at 201 additional genomic sites. This lineage/sublineage designation system has a hierarchical structure and reflects the relatedness among the subclades of the major lineages. We also provide a companion website (www.covid19evolution.net) that allows users to visualize sublineage information and upload their own SARS-CoV-2 genomes for sublineage classification. Finally, we discussed the possible roles of compensatory mutations and natural selection during SARS-CoV-2's evolution. These efforts will improve our understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of SARS-CoV-2's genome evolution.

On the founder effect in COVID-19 outbreaks: how many infected travelers may have started them all?

How many incoming travelers (I0 at time 0, equivalent to the 'founders' in evolutionary genetics) infected with SARS-CoV-2 who visit or return to a region could have started the epidemic of that region? I0 would be informative about the initiation and progression of epidemics. To obtain I0 , we analyze the genetic divergence among viral populations of different regions. By applying the 'individual-output' model of genetic drift to the SARS-CoV-2 diversities, we obtain I0 < 10, which could have been achieved by one infected traveler in a long-distance flight. The conclusion is robust regardless of the source population, the continuation of inputs (It for t > 0) or the fitness of the variants. With such a tiny trickle of human movement igniting many outbreaks, the crucial stage of repressing an epidemic in any region should, therefore, be the very first sign of local contagion when positive cases first become identifiable. The implications of the highly 'portable' epidemics, including their early evolution prior to any outbreak, are explored in the companion study (Ruan et al., personal communication).